Big 12 Predictions that stink..

Baylor 8-1

Oklahoma  7-2

TCU 7-2

Oklahoma State 5-4

Texas Tech 5-4

Kansas State 4-5

Texas 4-5

West Virginia 3-6

Iowa State 2-7

Kansas 0-9

Baylor: As much as it pains me to say this, I think Baylor will finish the year 11-1 with a loss coming somewhere on the road. It does benefit them with a young quarterback to have a backloaded schedule, but finishing at Oklahoma State where they have not won, and at TCU will be a difficult task. They will also play an embarrased OU team from prior years who will be improved this year I believe. Seth Russell will have legitimate numbers to give him a run at the heisman. He is more of a Briles style QB than Petty with his ability to run the football. Always love the added dimension in a college QB. The defense will have one of the strongest front fours in football led by Billings and Oakman. If you want to see a man play just watch Billings, he may be one of the best defensive players in football in 2015. If their is a hole on this team, it may be not having Bryce Hagar at middle linebacker position. But I believe the success of the season will depend on the secondary. They were streaky last year at best. Corners often get caught not playing the ball and settle for PI calls. That won't get it done in 2015 if the Bears want to make a run at the CFP.

Oklahoma: I think Oklahoma will be the "surpise" team this year. Before getting crushed by Baylor at home in 2014, they were a 2 loss team, both to top Big 12 teams by narrow margins and a strand of bad luck. That included a road game at TCU in which their reliable kicker missed some chip shots. The Sooners should also benefit from a QB change this year. I like Oklahoma to beat TCU at home and finish in a tie for second in the conference. 

TCU: Obviously they are the favorite in the Big 12 for good reaons. Like Baylor, they return 18 of 22 starters including heisman hopeful Boykin. They do have to travel to Kansas State this year, and also draw at Oklahoma, at Oklahoma State and get Baylor at home in 3 of their last 4 games. Advanced stats showed them as being the most fortunate team in turnover department last year. They will also have the target on their back this year, which is never easy. Coming in to the season their are question marks on the defensive side of the ball but I expect a Patterson coached team to alwasy excel in that department, especially by the end of the year. I think they will struggle to replicate what the did offsneively last year. They already took a good shot vs. Minnesota with a mediocre performance at best for the Big 12 favorite. I expect a solid season, but not buying into 9-0 Frogs just yet.

The rest of the Big 12 will be pretty mediocre. I do expect Tech and OSU to be improved with developing young QB's. Despite Texas recruiting efforts, they still have no QB. They also have a coach that will be on the hot seat if they fail to make a bowl. He will likely be on the hot seat even if they win 7 games. That being said I expect Texas to give him one more year in 2016.

Cowboys Draft Analysis

When looking at the state of he NFL, their are four positions that tend to demand the highest pay because they are the most crucial. On offense it's the quarterback and the wide receiver position. On defense, can you stop the pass. It's the defensive ends and corner backs. The Cowboys have prioritized the most cost effective positions in the draft with the addition of a corner back and pass rusher. 

Byron Jones is an athletic player who can play corner or safety. I like the pick because it upgraded the corner position, but he could also move to safety if Scandrick, Carr, and Claiborne are healthy and effective. The second reason I like the pick is the Cowboys now have more leverage trying to push Carr to take a paycut. He was an athletic freak at the combine, and with the coaching of Rod Marinelli could become a really good player. Cowboys did well not trading up to draft him, they stayed put and kept their picks. 

Second round pick was a value that was simply too good not to take a chance on, Randy Gregory. He is best fit likely for an outside linebacker position in a 3-4 defense due to his low weight, but will make a nice addition in obvious passing downs and perhaps play some outside linebacker. He was a top 15 talent before falling due to issues with marijuana. Some thought the Cowboys would consider him with their first pick, great value here. 

The rest of the draft notes include a pair of offensive tackles. The Cowboys need an eventual replacement for Doug Free and also a swing tackle short term. They accomplished good depth here. 

A couple noticeable misses: Cowboys did not address the running back position. Either due to their arrogance about their offensive line, or possibly they still think AP could still be at play. That will be a big story coming into the season. I believe in McFadden and Randle, but not enough to forgo a potential replacement for Murray. 

Another big miss in the draft was not replacing Harris as a kick returner. I really liked Goodley, who is a very versatile receiver/returner combo player. I thought he would be off the board by the 5th round. Fortunately the Cowboys were able to get him as a free agent. That will be a huge pick up I believe, and he will have impact in 2015 season. 

Of course draft grades are all speculation until we see the results, but I would give them a B+. Not finding a solid running back was the only ding I had on this year's draft for the Cowboys. 

Why Adrian Peterson to the Cowboys isn't as unrealistic as you maythink...

The Cowboys made a move today to attempt to upgrade the running back position by adding Darren McFadden. Many are skeptical whether he can contribute or not. The fact is that he is only guaranteed 200K, so this is a no risk, potential reward situation. However he is likely not going to be the starting running back heading into 2015. He will add depth as a physical back to complement the depth that Randle provides with speed. I remain convinced the best move for the Cowboys would be to use cap space on a pass rusher and corner back and draft Todd Gurley or Melvin Gordon with the 27th pick. However, if the best rusher of the past decade appears on the free agent market, you would be crazy not to consider it. Here are a few reasons why it would not surprise me to see AP in a Cowboys uniform in 2015.

1. His Cap Number. Adrian Peterson is set to count 15.4 million against the cap for the Vikings next year. If they release him, they will create 13 million in cap space. His cap number is set to be 15 million in 2016 and 17 million in 2017. I have heard the AP to the Cowboys could "cost the Cowboys many draft picks". Nonsense. Nobody uses a drat pick to trade for a RB set to make 15 million. Nobody would likely offer AP 15 million if he was a free agent today, why would they give up a draft pick to acquire that? 

2. Discontent. Adrian Peterson was not happy with the Vikings decision to place him on the commissioner's exempt list in 2014. He has expressed his desire to move on from the Vikings. 

3. Future. Vikings are not in a position to win now. With a draft full of strong running backs, the Vikings should look for a cheaper replacement through the draft. Money would be better spent building a younger nucleus around a young developing quarterback.

4. Home. AP has made it known he would like to be a Cowboy before he retires. If he is released from the Vikings, the Cowboys would likely be the odds on favorite to sign him given his desire to play there and the team's need at the position. I don't think AP would come cheap, but I do believe he would give the Cowboys a hometown discount. 

If Adrian Peterson becomes a free agent, expect the Cowboys to make an offer as strong or stronger than they did for Demarco Murray. He has been the best back in the NFL the past decade and is yet to show signs of slowing down. After sitting nearly the entire 2014 season, a fresh AP could help the Cowboys continue the success on the ground behind one of the NFL's top offensive lines.

Why the Cowboys should not hit the panic button with the loss of Murray

Many Cowboys fans are up in arms with the departure of Demarco Murray to the Philadelphia Eagles. I wanted to see Murray back in Cowboys uniform as much as anyone, but I also have an appreciation for the Cowboys careful consideration of the salary cap in recent years. As I mentioned in my first post, Cowboys have made improvements towards eliminating bad contracts. The same fans upset currently about not paying Murray were probably the same ones unhappy about bad contracts 3-4 years ago. Here are a few reasons not to panic.

1. The Draft. This draft is perhaps the deepest running back draft in recent memory, most notably Todd Gurley and Melvin Gordon in the first round. The Cowboys could also elect to sign a veteran like CJ Spiller and draft a back in the 4th round to develop. Keep in mind, all the players Cowboys have lost in free agency will lead to compensatory draft picks. Some really strong backs can be found in later rounds especially this year, and with the picks available the Cowboys will be in good position to do just that. 

2. Value. Murray had the best year of his career in a season where the Cowboys had perhaps the best run game coordinator in Bill Callahan and maybe the best offensive line in football. I believe both of those aspects inflated his value to a degree. Murray has also had injury issues at Oklahoma as well as his first 3 seasons with the Cowboys. After his workload last year, it would not be a surprise to see Murray regress. The Cowboys have paid him just over 2 million and gotten 4 good years from him after taking him in the third round. Continued good draft selection will enable them to try and do that again rather than pay him 42 million over the next 5 years.

3. Adrian Petersen. While this is not a likely scenario unless Petersen is cut, a signing of AP is always a possibility if he will take a smaller salary to play for his home town team.

4. Defense. With the saved cap space from the departure of Murray, Cowboys will have money to pursue a pass rusher. Greg Hardy has been thrown as a name out there, he may come cheap and is the most talented pass rusher in free agency.

Ultimately the Cowboys running game will likely regress to some degree in 2015, but that was likely even with the return of Demarco Murray. The best situation the Cowboys can hope for is they are able to improve the defense as a result and add a veteran running back as well as adding depth and youth through the draft.

Tony Romo's Contract and Salary Cap Insight

There were many critics of Jerry Jones when he awarded Tony Romo a contract valued at 110 million over 6 years with 55 million dollars in guaranteed money, averaging 18 million per season. 2015 that cap hit is scheduled to be a league high 27 million dollars. Many have wondered about the longevity of the contract with an aging player and a bad back. Here is why the contract is much better than you think and how it aligns with the way most NFL teams are working their salary cap in today's NFL.

1. First of all we should discuss the play of Tony Romo. The past 4 years have been the best four year's of his career. In 2014 at age 34, he finished with an NFL best quarterback rating at 113.2, completing almost 70% of his passes. Finally in 2014 he started to get help around him, notably Demarco Murray running the football and a defense that improved under Rod Marineli, still just an average defense. Prior to 2014, the Cowboys ranked nearly last in rushing efficiency as well as defensive ranks. Not many quarterbacks have won in the NFL with a poor defense and poor rushing attack. Tony Romo's career quarterback rating have him as one of the all time best. At 97.6 Tony Romo ranks number two all time, behind Aaron Rodgers and just ahead of Peyton Manning and Steve Young. Not a bad group to be a part of.

2. In 2018 if the Cowboys were to cut Romo, the cap hit would only be 2.5 million dollars. That puts him currently on basically a 3 year contract. He is scheduled to average 21 million over the next 3 years, but that is the cost when you have a quarterback of his caliber. When you add in 2014 where his cap hit was just under 12 million, that makes it essentially a 4 year deal averaging 19 million per year. Alex Smith was recently awarded a contract at 17 million dollars per year. Jay Cutler recently got a deal for 120 million dollars over 7 years, including 54 million the first 3 years. Andy Dalton was recently awarded a deal that paid him 115 million over 6 years. This is a quarterback who has never won a playoff game and many question whether he is the long term answer at quarterback for the Bengals. Jay Cutler is perhaps on his way out of Chicago and Alex Smith was not wanted by his prior team the 49ers. Their are quarterbacks with significantly less ability and statistical success getting paid anyways. It is a quarterback driven league.

3. Flexibility. Soon you will see Tony Romo restructure his contract like many other players do. He will take a signing bonus and move salary forward to future years. The cowboys can create roughly 11 million dollars in cap room through doing this. The goal will be to add cap space now so the Cowboys can put themselves in contention for a free agent to help get them to the next level. Romo will likely also lower his total contract to add more guarantee money to it. He did this last year to create 10 million in cap space. Tyron Smith signed a cap friendly deal that will allow him to do the same thing as well. With Smith it is significantly less risk on this type of deal because he is a younger player.

The Cowboys have not had the success many have wanted in recent years and Tony Romo still has a lot to prove in the playoffs to be more respected by many. However, when looking at the financials of the team, they finally have many players on their rookie deals outplaying their contract. That is a big key to winning in today's NFL. Look at the Seattle Seahawks and the value they have gotten from players like Russell Wilson. The value the Cowboys are getting from their rookie contracts, most notably the offensive line, along with a quarterback playing at a high level with a contract he can restructure, should leave the Cowboys in position to extend Dez Bryant to a long term deal, sign a defensive end or corner back to help improve the defense, and look for a running back in the draft to replace Demarco Murray. If they can avoid a bad contract this off season and make quiet moves while retaining their own talent, the Cowboys will put themselves in contention for the Superbowl the next 3 years.

Cap numbers - http://overthecap.com/salary-cap/dallas-cowboys/
Quarterback stats - http://www.pro-football-reference.com/leaders/pass_rating_career.htm
Romo Contract - http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/dallas-cowboys/tony-romo/